Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.84book 1.85
No46%
ours 2.18book 1.84
All matches
Juventud — Penarol, Primera División
Uruguay, Primera División
Juventud
2.0LWDDW
Penarol
3.1LDWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
23%25%52%
JuventudMarket 3.7323%DrawMarket 3.2425%PenarolMarket 1.8952%
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Juventud4.403.73-1.5
XDraw4.003.24-2.9
2Penarol1.911.89+4.4
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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71%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 2295 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 2290 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 2279 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
JuventudPenarol
CA Juventud 23%, CA Peñarol 52%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
CA Juventud 23%Draw 25%CA Peñarol 52%
1st half
29 · 45 · 26
2nd half
17 · 35 · 48
Bookmakers: 3.73 · 3.24 · 1.89
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total fouls: Under 26.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricJuventudPenarolCombined
Goals scored1.001.002.00
Conceded0.600.801.40
Corners9.06.87.9
Cards2.23.25.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Juventud- 3 clean sheets in the last 50:2, 2:0, 0:0, 0:0, 3:1
- Unbeaten at home in 4 matches2:0, 0:0, 1:1, 2:0, 0:1
- 2 goals or fewer in 4 of the last 5
Penarol- Best attack in the league — 56 goals in 34 matches1st place, 67 points
- Fewest corners in the league in their matches — 7.9 per match16 teams in the league
- 2 goals or fewer in 4 of the last 5
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Juventud
- awayProgreso0:2
- homeRacing Montevideo2:0
- awayBoston River0:0
- homeCerro0:0
- awayAlbion3:1
Penarol
- awayLiverpool Montevideo0:1
- homeProgreso1:1
- awayRacing Montevideo1:0
- awayMontevideo City1:1
- homeBoston River2:1
Head to head
- 04/20/26Primera División2:2
- 09/21/25Primera División0:1
- 03/27/25Primera División0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Penarol34207756:2867
Penarol34207756:28672
Maldonado32178750:2859
Maldonado32178750:28593
Montevideo City331761054:3957
Montevideo City331761054:39574
Racing Montevideo331511739:2756
Racing Montevideo331511739:27565
Nacional321741148:3855
Nacional321741148:38556
Liverpool Montevideo331411844:3153
Liverpool Montevideo331411844:31537
Montevideo Wanderers341481242:4750
Montevideo Wanderers341481242:47508
Albion331271444:4343
Albion331271444:43439Juventud3310101337:4140
Juventud3310101337:414010
Central Espanol331081532:4438
Central Espanol331081532:443811
Boston River331071633:4337
Boston River331071633:4337Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.