All matches

Huracan — Gimnasia La Plata, Primera División

Argentina, Primera División

Huracan
2.0WWWDD
—
Gimnasia La Plata
2.1DDDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
48%26%26%
Huracan48%Draw26%Gimnasia La Plata26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Huracan48%2.08—
XDraw26%3.80—
2Gimnasia La Plata26%3.89—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73

No42%

ours 2.36

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHuracanGimnasia La PlataCombined
Goals scored1.171.332.50
Conceded0.671.001.67
Corners8.68.68.6
Cards2.22.64.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

HuracanGimnasia La Plata

CA Huracán 48%, Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 26%. The safest is “CA Huracán or draw” at 75%.

CA Huracán 48%Draw 26%Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 26%
1st half
35 · 38 · 27
2nd half
40 · 37 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Huracan

  • homeAldosivi1:0
  • awayRiver Plate2:1
  • homeRacing Club2:1
  • awayBelgrano de Cordoba1:1
  • homeEstudiantes de Río Cuarto1:1

Gimnasia La Plata

  • awayIndependiente Rivadavia1:1
  • homeBanfield2:2
  • awayArgentinos Juniors1:1
  • homeTigre2:1
  • awayRosario Central2:1

Head to head

  • 04/05/26Primera División3:0
  • 10/23/16Primera División0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6River Plate301541142:2949
7Velez Sarsfield281213335:2449
8Gimnasia La Plata291451036:3747
9Estudiantes281351032:1944
10Huracan291111731:2444
11Instituto Córdoba26134932:2443
12Independiente28118936:3541

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.