Bucaramanga — America de Cali, Categoria Primera A

Colombia, Categoria Primera AOctober 18 at 08:30 PM

Bucaramanga

2.5WWWDW

—

America de Cali

2.9WWDLW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

43%27%30%

Bucaramanga43%Draw27%America de Cali30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Bucaramanga43%2.31—

XDraw27%3.67—

2America de Cali30%3.39—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.21

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBucaramangaAmerica de CaliCombined

Goals scored2.171.173.34

Conceded0.830.501.33

Corners9.49.49.4

Cards2.82.45.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.