Bucaramanga — Rionegro Aguilas, Primera A

Colombia, Primera AOctober 13 at 11:30 PM

Bucaramanga

2.5WWWDW

Rionegro Aguilas

1.8DWLLD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

55%26%19%

BucaramangaMarket 2.0055%DrawMarket 3.1626%Rionegro AguilasMarket 3.8119%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Bucaramanga55%50%1.802.00+5.5

XDraw26%32%3.873.16-5.8

2Rionegro Aguilas19%26%5.353.81-7.6

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.86book 1.84

No46%

ours 2.16book 1.86

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Combos

Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.

Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

This market opens with a subscription.

70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1702 matches

Corners

This market opens with a subscription.

71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1700 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1687 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

BucaramangaRionegro Aguilas

CA Bucaramanga 55%, Rionegro Águilas SA 19%. The safest is “CA Bucaramanga or draw” at 77%.

CA Bucaramanga 55%Draw 26%Rionegro Águilas SA 19%

1st half

38 · 47 · 15

2nd half

37 · 39 · 24

Bookmakers: 2.00 · 3.16 · 3.81

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%1.23

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBucaramangaRionegro AguilasCombined

Goals scored2.331.003.33

Conceded1.001.502.50

Corners8.311.09.7

Cards3.02.85.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Sign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.