All matches

Boca Juniors — River Plate, Primera División

Argentina, Primera División

Boca Juniors
3.1WWWDW
—
River Plate
2.6LWWWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
49%26%25%
Boca Juniors49%Draw26%River Plate25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Boca Juniors49%2.03—
XDraw26%3.83—
2River Plate25%4.06—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73

No42%

ours 2.36

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBoca JuniorsRiver PlateCombined
Goals scored1.330.501.83
Conceded0.170.500.67
Corners7.05.56.3
Cards2.71.54.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Boca JuniorsRiver Plate

CA Boca Juniors 49%, CA River Plate 25%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

CA Boca Juniors 49%Draw 26%CA River Plate 25%
1st half
39 · 36 · 25
2nd half
34 · 39 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Boca Juniors

  • homeUnion de Santa Fe3:0
  • awaySan Lorenzo de Almagro2:0
  • homeCentral Córdoba de Santiago del Estero3:1
  • awayGimnasia Mendoza2:2
  • homeLanus1:0

River Plate

  • homeHuracan1:2
  • awayTucuman2:1
  • homeIndependiente Rivadavia3:1
  • awayBanfield3:2
  • homeVelez Sarsfield2:2

Head to head

  • 04/19/26Primera División1:0
  • 11/09/25Primera División2:0
  • 04/27/25Primera División1:2
  • 05/14/17Primera División1:3
  • 12/11/16Primera División4:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Rosario Central30158737:2853
4Independiente Rivadavia28157645:3152
5Boca Juniors281311441:2350
6River Plate301541142:2949
7Velez Sarsfield281213335:2449
8Gimnasia La Plata291451036:3747

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.