CA Bizertin — ES Zarzis, Ligue 1

Tunisia, Ligue 1October 28 at 12:00 AM

CA Bizertin

1.7LDWWL

—

ES Zarzis

1.9LLLWW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

42%30%28%

CA Bizertin42%Draw30%ES Zarzis28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CA Bizertin42%2.36—

XDraw30%3.33—

2ES Zarzis28%3.62—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.90

No47%

ours 2.12

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Combos

Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.

Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

This market opens with a subscription.

70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 907 matches

Corners

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 906 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

68%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 903 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

CA BizertinES Zarzis

CA Bizertin 42%, ES Zarzis 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

CA Bizertin 42%Draw 30%ES Zarzis 28%

1st half

40 · 36 · 25

2nd half

34 · 47 · 19

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCA BizertinES ZarzisCombined

Goals scored0.170.170.34

Conceded0.500.501.00

Corners10.58.09.3

Cards3.00.53.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Sign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.