Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.78
No44%
ours 2.28
All matches
—
Burnley — Wolverhampton, Championship
England, Championship
Burnley
1.6DLDLD
Wolverhampton
1.1WWDLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
47%26%27%
Burnley47%Draw26%Wolverhampton27%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Burnley2.15—
XDraw3.82—
2Wolverhampton3.67—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBurnleyWolverhamptonCombined
Goals scored0.671.001.67
Conceded1.171.002.17
Corners10.012.311.1
Cards2.81.03.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
BurnleyWolverhampton
Burnley FC 47%, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 27%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Burnley FC 47%Draw 26%Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 27%
1st half
37 · 36 · 27
2nd half
29 · 42 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Burnley
- homeDerby County1:1
- awaySwansea City1:3
- awayWrexham1:1
- homeBristol City1:2
- homeMiddlesbrough1:1
Wolverhampton
- homeWest Bromwich1:0
- awaySheffield United1:0
- awayBirmingham City2:2
- awayWest Ham2:4
- homeStoke City4:1
Head to head
- 05/24/26Premier League1:1
- 10/26/25Premier League3:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Middlesbrough843116:1215
Middlesbrough843116:12154
Southampton842219:1014
Southampton842219:10145Wolverhampton742115:1014
Wolverhampton742115:10146
West Bromwich842210:814
West Bromwich842210:8147
QPR834110:713
QPR834110:7138
Stoke City841313:1213
Stoke City841313:12139
Bristol City841311:1213
Bristol City841311:121310
Charlton Athletic83327:1012
Charlton Athletic83327:101211
Birmingham City825112:1111
Birmingham City825112:111112
Millwall832315:1511
Millwall832315:151113
Lincoln City83237:811
Lincoln City83237:81114
Wrexham82429:1210
Wrexham82429:121015
Bolton Wanderers831411:1510
Bolton Wanderers831411:151016
Blackburn Rovers823312:129
Blackburn Rovers823312:12917
Norwich City830516:179
Norwich City830516:17918
Sheffield United82339:119
Sheffield United82339:11919
Portsmouth72239:108
Portsmouth72239:10820
Watford82247:108
Watford82247:10821
Cardiff City814310:127
Cardiff City814310:12722
Derby County81257:145
Derby County81257:14523
Preston81168:154
Preston81168:15424Burnley80449:174
Burnley80449:174Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.