Briton Ferry Llansawel — Llandudno, Welsh Premier League

Wales, Welsh Premier LeagueOctober 30 at 07:45 PM

Briton Ferry Llansawel

1.5WDDLL

—

Llandudno

1.9LLLDL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

38%25%37%

Briton Ferry Llansawel38%Draw25%Llandudno37%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Briton Ferry Llansawel38%2.65—

XDraw25%3.94—

2Llandudno37%2.71—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.79

No44%

ours 2.26

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBriton Ferry LlansawelLlandudnoCombined

Goals scored0.830.831.66

Conceded0.831.332.16

Corners8.88.88.8

Cards1.52.84.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Briton Ferry LlansawelLlandudno

Briton Ferry Llansawel AFC 38%, Llandudno FC 37%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Briton Ferry Llansawel AFC 38%Draw 25%Llandudno FC 37%

1st half

40 · 37 · 23

2nd half

27 · 39 · 34

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

72%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context