Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.69
No41%
ours 2.44
All matches
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Brentford — Nottingham Forest, Premier League
England, Premier League
Brentford
2.4WDDDW
Nottingham Forest
2.4LWDDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
46%26%28%
Brentford46%Draw26%Nottingham Forest28%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Brentford2.18—
XDraw3.83—
2Nottingham Forest3.57—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBrentfordNottingham ForestCombined
Goals scored1.000.331.33
Conceded0.500.330.83
Corners8.79.08.8
Cards2.03.05.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
BrentfordNottingham Forest
Brentford FC 46%, Nottingham Forest FC 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Brentford FC 46%Draw 26%Nottingham Forest FC 28%
1st half
38 · 38 · 24
2nd half
32 · 37 · 31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 2.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Brentford
- homeChelsea3:0
- awayBournemouth2:2
- homeSunderland1:1
- awayLeeds United1:1
- homeTottenham3:0
Nottingham Forest
- homeCoventry City0:1
- awayAston Villa2:1
- homeTottenham0:0
- awayLiverpool2:2
- homeLeeds United0:1
Head to head
- 01/25/26Premier League0:2
- 08/17/25Premier League1:3
- 05/01/25Premier League2:0
- 12/21/24Premier League0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Arsenal54018:412
Arsenal54018:4123
Brighton531116:510
Brighton531116:5104Brentford523010:49
Brentford523010:495
Leeds United52307:39
Leeds United52307:396
Liverpool52307:49
Liverpool52307:497
Everton52306:39
Everton52306:398
Hull City52216:48
Hull City52216:489
Newcastle United52219:98
Newcastle United52219:9810
Chelsea521210:127
Chelsea521210:12711
Ipswich Town52037:116
Ipswich Town52037:11612
Manchester United51228:85
Manchester United51228:8513Nottingham Forest51224:55
Nottingham Forest51224:5514
Sunderland51136:104
Sunderland51136:10415
Crystal Palace51136:114
Crystal Palace51136:114Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.