Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.74
No43%
ours 2.35
All matches
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Bologna — Inter Milan, Serie A
Italy, Serie A
Bologna
2.3DLDLL
Inter Milan
3.9DWLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
20%21%59%
Bologna20%Draw21%Inter Milan59%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Bologna5.13—
XDraw4.73—
2Inter Milan1.68—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBolognaInter MilanCombined
Goals scored0.501.832.33
Conceded1.001.502.50
Corners10.211.811.0
Cards1.62.03.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
BolognaInter Milan
Bologna FC 1909 20%, FC Internazionale Milano 59%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
Bologna FC 1909 20%Draw 21%FC Internazionale Milano 59%
1st half
29 · 38 · 33
2nd half
26 · 35 · 39
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Bologna
- homeTorino1:1
- awayNapoli0:1
- homeSassuolo2:2
- awayAtalanta0:1
- homeLazio0:1
Inter Milan
- awayRoma2:2
- homeUdinese5:3
- awayReal Madrid1:2
- homeNapoli3:2
- awayCagliari1:0
Head to head
- 05/23/26Serie A3:3
- 01/04/26Serie A1:3
- 04/20/25Serie A1:0
- 01/15/25Serie A2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Roma541014:313
Roma541014:3132Inter Milan541015:813
Inter Milan541015:8133
Lazio54108:313
Lazio54108:3134
Cagliari54015:212
Cagliari54015:2125
AC Milan532010:411
AC Milan532010:4116
Frosinone53119:410
Frosinone53119:4107
Juventus53118:410
Juventus53118:4108
Como53119:610
Como53119:6109
Napoli52127:67
Napoli52127:6710
Sassuolo52129:97
Sassuolo52129:9711
Atalanta52035:76
Atalanta52035:7612
Lecce52035:106
Lecce52035:10613
Udinese51138:114
Udinese51138:11414
Torino51135:84
Torino51135:8415
Parma51134:74
Parma51134:7416
Monza51138:124
Monza51138:12417
Fiorentina51136:124
Fiorentina51136:12418Bologna50233:62
Bologna50233:6219
Genoa50143:101
Genoa50143:10120
Venezia50054:130
Venezia50054:130Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.