Bohemians 1905 — Mlada Boleslav, First League

Czech Republic, First LeagueOctober 14 at 04:00 PM

Bohemians 1905

1.7WLWLD

Mlada Boleslav

2.0LWLWW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

40%26%33%

Bohemians 1905Market 2.1640%DrawMarket 3.6026%Mlada BoleslavMarket 3.0033%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Bohemians 190540%46%2.482.16-6.0

XDraw26%28%3.793.60-1.4

2Mlada Boleslav33%33%3.003.00-0.1

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73book 1.55

No42%

ours 2.37book 2.30

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

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Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1702 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1700 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1687 matches

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Bohemians 1905Mlada Boleslav

Bohemians 1905 40%, FK Mladá Boleslav 33%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Bohemians 1905 40%Draw 26%FK Mladá Boleslav 33%

1st half

38 · 37 · 24

2nd half

36 · 35 · 28

Bookmakers: 2.16 · 3.60 · 3.00

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

64%1.39

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBohemians 1905Mlada BoleslavCombined

Goals scored1.171.502.67

Conceded1.331.332.66

Corners8.512.710.6

Cards1.51.32.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.