All matches

Bohemians — Waterford, Premier Division

Republic of Ireland, Premier Division

Bohemians
2.3WWWWW
—
Waterford
1.4LDDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
59%24%17%
Bohemians59%Draw24%Waterford17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Bohemians59%1.70—
XDraw24%4.10—
2Waterford17%5.95—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.68

No40%

ours 2.48

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBohemiansWaterfordCombined
Goals scored2.501.674.17
Conceded1.171.172.34
Corners10.012.811.4
Cards1.01.82.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

BohemiansWaterford

Bohemian FC 59%, Waterford FC 17%. The safest is “Bohemian FC or draw” at 84%.

Bohemian FC 59%Draw 24%Waterford FC 17%
1st half
50 · 30 · 20
2nd half
41 · 39 · 21
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 2.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Bohemians

  • awayDundalk2:1
  • homeDrogheda United2:1
  • awayGalway United3:2
  • homeSligo Rovers3:0
  • homeDerry City5:3

Waterford

  • awayShamrock Rovers2:3
  • homeDerry City2:2
  • homeDundalk1:1
  • awaySt Patrick's2:0
  • awaySligo Rovers0:0

Head to head

  • 08/09/26Premier Division1:3
  • 04/06/26Premier Division1:1
  • 03/06/26Premier Division1:0
  • 09/19/25Premier Division2:1
  • 06/20/25Premier Division1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1St Patrick's32178752:2559
2Bohemians32178757:3859
3Shamrock Rovers31178649:3159
4Derry City32914945:4241
5Dundalk3310111250:5541
6Shelbourne329131042:4540
7Galway United329111242:4838
8Waterford327131244:5434
9Drogheda United328101438:5134
10Sligo Rovers32581924:5423

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.