All matches

Besiktas — Kocaelispor, Süper Lig

Turkey, Süper Lig

Besiktas
3.0LWWWW
—
Kocaelispor
1.8WLWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
63%24%14%
BesiktasMarket 1.2663%DrawMarket 6.4524%KocaelisporMarket 11.7014%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Besiktas63%79%1.591.26-16.3
XDraw24%16%4.236.45+8.1
2Kocaelispor14%9%7.4011.70+5.0

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.97book 2.03

No49%

ours 2.03book 1.70

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBesiktasKocaelisporCombined
Goals scored2.831.174.00
Conceded1.330.672.00
Corners9.79.29.4
Cards2.71.34.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

BesiktasKocaelispor

Beşiktaş 63%, Kocaelispor Kulübü 14%. The safest is “Beşiktaş or draw” at 86%.

Beşiktaş 63%Draw 24%Kocaelispor Kulübü 14%
1st half
47 · 37 · 15
2nd half
39 · 40 · 21

Bookmakers: 1.26 · 6.45 · 11.70

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

69%1.13
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Besiktas

  • awayAmedspor2:3
  • homeMarseille4:1
  • homeErzurumspor3:0
  • awayFenerbahce2:1
  • homeCorum FK6:2

Kocaelispor

  • homeGaziantep2:0
  • awayGalatasaray0:1
  • homeSamsunspor1:0
  • awayKonyaspor2:1
  • homeAmedspor2:0

Head to head

  • 02/28/26Süper Lig1:0
  • 09/29/25Süper Lig3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Amedspor641115:713
2Galatasaray641113:1013
3Besiktas640214:712
4Kocaelispor64027:412
5Alanyaspor63218:611
6Fenerbahce631216:610

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.