All matches

Besiktas — Crystal Palace, UEFA Europa League

Europe, UEFA Europa League

Besiktas
3.0LWWWW
—
Crystal Palace
2.4DWLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
23%25%52%
Besiktas23%Draw25%Crystal Palace52%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Besiktas23%4.36—
XDraw25%3.93—
2Crystal Palace52%1.94—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.13

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBesiktasCrystal PalaceCombined
Goals scored1.501.002.50
Conceded0.670.501.17
Corners9.39.09.2
Cards3.31.34.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

BesiktasCrystal Palace

Beşiktaş 23%, Crystal Palace FC 52%. The safest is “Crystal Palace FC or draw” at 77%.

Beşiktaş 23%Draw 25%Crystal Palace FC 52%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

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Form and context

Besiktas

  • awayAmedspor2:3
  • homeMarseille4:1
  • homeErzurumspor3:0
  • awayFenerbahce2:1
  • homeCorum FK6:2

Crystal Palace

  • awayLeeds United0:0
  • homeLech Poznan4:0
  • homeIpswich Town2:3
  • awayFulham3:2
  • homeManchester City1:4

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Ferencvaros972019:623
2Besiktas760112:218
3Benfica751121:616
4Anderlecht751115:616
5Salzburg54109:313
6CSKA Sofia83239:1111
7Lech Poznan531115:610
8Jagiellonia531110:510
9Omonia53117:410
10OFI33007:09
11Maccabi Tel Aviv43019:49
12Qarabag42206:08
13PAOK42027:66
14Hradec Kralove42024:36
15Hajduk Split42025:66
16Universitatea Craiova41214:45
17Egnatia41127:64
18Paphos41127:64
19Lillestrom31113:34
20Avan Academy31113:54
21Iberia 199941123:74
22Thun41127:124
23Sheriff41121:64
24Juventus11005:03
25Crystal Palace11004:03
26Sparta Prague11004:13
27Union Saint-Gilloise11003:03

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.