All matches

Daugavpils — Auda Riga, Virsliga

Latvia, Virsliga

Daugavpils
1.6DLDLD
—
Auda Riga
2.6DWDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
32%25%43%
Daugavpils32%Draw25%Auda Riga43%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Daugavpils32%3.17—
XDraw25%3.98—
2Auda Riga43%2.31—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.20

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDaugavpilsAuda RigaCombined
Goals scored0.331.001.33
Conceded0.670.671.34
Corners9.410.49.9
Cards1.62.23.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

DaugavpilsAuda Riga

Bērnu futbola centrs Daugavpils 32%, FK Auda Riga 43%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

Bērnu futbola centrs Daugavpils 32%Draw 25%FK Auda Riga 43%
1st half
31 · 41 · 28
2nd half
26 · 38 · 36
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Daugavpils

  • awayLiepaja0:0
  • homeRFS1:2
  • awayRiga1:1
  • awayGrobina0:1
  • awaySuper Nova0:0

Auda Riga

  • homeRFS1:1
  • homeOgre United1:0
  • awayRiga2:2
  • homeGrobina1:0
  • homeSuper Nova1:1

Head to head

  • 07/26/26Virsliga0:1
  • 05/26/26Virsliga0:1
  • 04/12/26Virsliga3:2
  • 10/05/25Virsliga1:0
  • 07/20/25Virsliga3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1RFS30235271:2274
2Riga31227286:3073
3Auda Riga31187649:3061
4Liepaja311271241:4343
5Daugavpils311091235:3539
6Super Nova301051529:4035
7FS Jelgava31881532:4932

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.