Both teams to score
Yes63%
ours 1.58
No37%
ours 2.73
All matches
—
Bayer Leverkusen — Stuttgart, Bundesliga
Germany, Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen
3.1WWDWL
Stuttgart
2.5LLWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
50%24%25%
Bayer Leverkusen50%Draw24%Stuttgart25%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Bayer Leverkusen1.99—
XDraw4.10—
2Stuttgart3.96—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBayer LeverkusenStuttgartCombined
Goals scored0.330.000.33
Conceded0.000.170.17
Corners15.08.011.5
Cards2.02.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Bayer LeverkusenStuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 50%, VfB Stuttgart 1893 25%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 50%Draw 24%VfB Stuttgart 1893 25%
1st half
45 · 32 · 24
2nd half
37 · 38 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 2.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Bayer Leverkusen
- homeRB Leipzig2:0
- homeCelje2:0
- awayAugsburg2:2
- homeUnion Berlin4:0
- awayElversberg2:3
Stuttgart
- homeBorussia Dortmund0:1
- awayHoffenheim1:2
- homeViking3:1
- homeKoln4:1
- awayBayern Munich1:5
Head to head
- 05/09/26Bundesliga1:3
- 01/10/26Bundesliga1:4
- 03/16/25Bundesliga4:3
- 11/01/24Bundesliga0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Freiburg431012:310
Freiburg431012:3104
Augsburg421111:67
Augsburg421111:675Bayer Leverkusen421110:57
Bayer Leverkusen421110:576
Mainz 05421110:67
Mainz 05421110:677
Elversberg42118:77
Elversberg42118:778
Werder Bremen42118:87
Werder Bremen42118:879
RB Leipzig42029:56
RB Leipzig42029:5610
Eintracht Frankfurt41219:105
Eintracht Frankfurt41219:10511
Schalke 0441213:45
Schalke 0441213:4512
Paderborn41123:54
Paderborn41123:5413
Koln41126:94
Koln41126:9414
Hoffenheim41037:103
Hoffenheim41037:10315Stuttgart41036:93
Stuttgart41036:9316
Hamburger SV41032:133
Hamburger SV41032:13317
Union Berlin40134:171
Union Berlin40134:171Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.