Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.74
No43%
ours 2.35
All matches
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Avispa Fukuoka — Gamba Osaka, J1 League
Japan, J1 League
Avispa Fukuoka
LLDLL
Gamba Osaka
LLLDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
43%25%32%
Avispa Fukuoka43%Draw25%Gamba Osaka32%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Avispa Fukuoka2.33—
XDraw4.01—
2Gamba Osaka3.12—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAvispa FukuokaGamba OsakaCombined
Goals scored0.500.330.83
Conceded1.001.172.17
Corners9.311.510.4
Cards1.81.02.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Avispa FukuokaGamba Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka 43%, Gamba Osaka 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
Avispa Fukuoka 43%Draw 25%Gamba Osaka 32%
1st half
40 · 40 · 20
2nd half
33 · 35 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Avispa Fukuoka
- homeSanfrecce Hiroshima0:1
- awayShimizu S-Pulse0:1
- homeMito Hollyhock1:1
- homeUrawa Red Diamonds2:3
- awayKyoto Sanga FC1:2
Gamba Osaka
- homeVissel Kobe0:1
- homeFC Tokyo0:2
- awayJEF United Ichihara Chiba0:2
- awayV-Varen Nagasaki2:2
- homeSanfrecce Hiroshima0:0
Head to head
- 11/30/25J1 League1:0
- 02/22/25J1 League1:2
- 08/24/24J1 League2:2
- 05/03/24J1 League1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
14
Kyoto Sanga FC822411:158
Kyoto Sanga FC822411:15815
V-Varen Nagasaki822410:158
V-Varen Nagasaki822410:15816Gamba Osaka81348:146
Gamba Osaka81348:14617
Nagoya Grampus82067:146
Nagoya Grampus82067:14618Avispa Fukuoka81169:124
Avispa Fukuoka81169:12419
Tokyo Verdy80444:124
Tokyo Verdy80444:12420
JEF United Ichihara Chiba81167:184
JEF United Ichihara Chiba81167:184Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.