All matches

Avai — Botafogo-SP, Serie B

Brazil, Serie B

Avai
1.6LLLDL
—
Botafogo-SP
1.3LWDLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
47%26%26%
Avai47%Draw26%Botafogo-SP26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Avai47%2.11—
XDraw26%3.82—
2Botafogo-SP26%3.78—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.88

No47%

ours 2.14

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAvaiBotafogo-SPCombined
Goals scored0.170.500.67
Conceded1.000.331.33
Corners10.79.09.8
Cards4.32.06.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

AvaiBotafogo-SP

Avai FC 47%, Botafogo FC Ribeirão Preto 26%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Avai FC 47%Draw 26%Botafogo FC Ribeirão Preto 26%
1st half
36 · 43 · 21
2nd half
32 · 38 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Avai

  • homeCeara0:1
  • awayCriciuma0:3
  • awayGoias1:2
  • homeVila Nova1:1
  • awayFortaleza0:1

Botafogo-SP

  • homeVila Nova0:1
  • homePonte Preta2:0
  • awayAthletic (MG)1:1
  • homeGoias1:3
  • homeGremio Novorizontino1:3

Head to head

  • 07/06/26Serie B1:3
  • 11/23/25Serie B0:0
  • 07/28/25Serie B5:0
  • 11/19/24Serie B3:1
  • 07/31/24Serie B1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
14Goias311261330:3942
15Ceara311091234:3939
16Botafogo-SP31981434:3735
17Avai31861730:4230
18Londrina31771739:4528
19America Mineiro31452221:5217

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.