All matches

Austin — Nashville SC, MLS

USA, MLS

Austin
1.6DDWDD
—
Nashville SC
2.6WWDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
31%25%45%
AustinMarket 4.0731%DrawMarket 3.8325%Nashville SCMarket 1.9145%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Austin31%25%3.264.07+6.1
XDraw25%26%4.033.83-1.3
2Nashville SC45%52%2.251.91-7.9

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84book 1.64

No46%

ours 2.19book 2.13

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAustinNashville SCCombined
Goals scored1.502.003.50
Conceded1.170.671.84
Corners10.08.89.4
Cards2.01.83.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

AustinNashville SC

Austin FC 31%, Nashville SC MLS 44%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Austin FC 31%Draw 25%Nashville SC MLS 44%
1st half
30 · 40 · 31
2nd half
26 · 39 · 35

Bookmakers: 4.07 · 3.83 · 1.91

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

70%1.25
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Austin

  • homeSan Diego3:3
  • awayDallas0:0
  • awayVancouver Whitecaps2:1
  • homeColorado Rapids1:1
  • homeSan Jose Earthquakes1:1

Nashville SC

  • homeToronto2:0
  • homeChicago Fire3:0
  • awayInter Miami2:2
  • awayToronto1:2
  • awayNew York City0:0

Head to head

  • 08/25/24MLS2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Nashville SC27186355:2160
2Vancouver Whitecaps26155659:2650
3St. Louis City27138648:3647
4Dallas27138650:4247
5Inter Miami271210564:5046
6New England Revolution27144945:3646
7San Jose Earthquakes27136849:3945
8Houston Dynamo27135934:3244
9Charlotte27127847:3843
10Chicago Fire26126846:3842
11Los Angeles28118943:3041
12Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
13Seattle Sounders27108935:3538
14Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
15LA Galaxy28991037:4436
16Orlando City271041348:6434
17New York City27891041:3633
18Cincinnati2689955:6433
19New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
20San Diego27881147:4732
21Portland Timbers27951348:5132
22Real Salt Lake27951340:4432
23Austin277101035:4731
24DC United26612834:4230
25Columbus Crew27851439:4329

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.