Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.85
No46%
ours 2.18
All matches
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Auckland — Melbourne City, A-League
Australia, A-League
Auckland
2.6WWDDD
Melbourne City
2.4DLWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
44%26%31%
Auckland44%Draw26%Melbourne City31%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Auckland2.30—
XDraw3.88—
2Melbourne City3.25—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAucklandMelbourne CityCombined
Goals scored1.332.003.33
Conceded0.831.001.83
Corners10.310.810.6
Cards2.52.24.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AucklandMelbourne City
Auckland FC 44%, Melbourne City FC 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Auckland FC 44%Draw 26%Melbourne City FC 31%
1st half
36 · 38 · 26
2nd half
34 · 39 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Auckland
- homeSydney1:0
- awayAdelaide United3:0
- homeAdelaide United1:1
- homeMelbourne City1:1
- awaySydney2:2
Melbourne City
- awayAuckland1:1
- homeAdelaide United1:2
- awayBrisbane Roar3:2
- homeWellington Phoenix2:0
- homeCentral Coast Mariners2:1
Head to head
- 05/02/26A-League1:1
- 02/28/26A-League3:0
- 01/16/26A-League1:2
- 01/18/25A-League3:0
- 12/15/24A-League2:2
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.