Atletico San Luis — Santos Laguna, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MXOctober 11 at 11:00 PM

Atletico San Luis

1.3WWLLW

—

Santos Laguna

0.5WWWLD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

55%24%21%

Atletico San LuisMarket 1.9255%DrawMarket 3.5824%Santos LagunaMarket 3.6021%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Atletico San Luis55%52%1.831.92+2.4

XDraw24%28%4.173.58-3.9

2Santos Laguna21%28%4.663.60-6.3

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.68book 1.55

No40%

ours 2.48book 2.30

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAtletico San LuisSantos LagunaCombined

Goals scored1.671.333.00

Conceded1.671.172.84

Corners8.814.311.6

Cards1.32.23.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Atletico San LuisSantos Laguna

Atlético San Luis 55%, Club Santos Laguna 21%. The safest is “Atlético San Luis or draw” at 76%.

Atlético San Luis 55%Draw 24%Club Santos Laguna 21%

1st half

38 · 40 · 22

2nd half

39 · 36 · 26

Bookmakers: 1.92 · 3.58 · 3.60

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

69%1.24

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context