Atlético Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza — Platense, Primera División

Argentina, Primera DivisiónOctober 23 at 09:30 PM

Atlético Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza

2.0WLDLD

Platense

1.4DDLLD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

46%29%25%

Atlético Gimnasia y Esgrima de MendozaMarket 2.5146%DrawMarket 3.0329%PlatenseMarket 3.0825%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Atlético Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza46%40%2.172.51+6.3

XDraw29%33%3.483.03-4.3

2Platense25%32%3.973.08-7.3

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84book 2.06

No46%

ours 2.19book 1.68

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

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Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1869 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1865 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1856 matches

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Atlético Gimnasia y Esgrima de MendozaPlatense

Atlético Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza 46%, Platense 25%. The safest is “No draw” at 71%.

Atlético Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza 46%Draw 29%Platense 25%

1st half

37 · 44 · 20

2nd half

29 · 41 · 30

Bookmakers: 2.51 · 3.03 · 3.08

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 1.5

58%1.42

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAtlético Gimnasia y Esgrima de MendozaPlatenseCombined

Goals scored0.500.831.33

Conceded1.171.172.34

Corners9.07.48.2

Cards2.42.65.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.