Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.80
No44%
ours 2.25
All matches
—
Atlanta United — Toronto, MLS
USA, MLS
Atlanta United
1.1DWDLD
Toronto
1.3LLLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
45%26%29%
Atlanta United45%Draw26%Toronto29%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Atlanta United2.20—
XDraw3.92—
2Toronto3.45—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAtlanta UnitedTorontoCombined
Goals scored0.330.000.33
Conceded0.330.330.66
Corners7.012.09.5
Cards1.00.01.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Atlanta UnitedToronto
Atlanta United FC 45%, Toronto FC 29%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Atlanta United FC 45%Draw 26%Toronto FC 29%
1st half
37 · 41 · 22
2nd half
35 · 38 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 4.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Atlanta United
- homeNew York City2:2
- awayPortland Timbers1:0
- awayDC United0:0
- homeOrlando City2:3
- awayInter Miami2:2
Toronto
- awayNashville SC0:2
- awaySt. Louis City1:3
- awayOrlando City0:3
- homeNashville SC2:1
- homeChicago Fire4:4
Head to head
- 04/25/26MLS2:1
- 08/24/25MLS0:0
- 07/12/25MLS1:1
- 06/29/24MLS2:1
- 03/23/24MLS0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
25
Columbus Crew27851439:4329
Columbus Crew27851439:432926
Minnesota United27781240:4929
Minnesota United27781240:492927Toronto276111039:5129
Toronto276111039:512928Atlanta United27761432:4527
Atlanta United27761432:452729
Montreal Impact27661534:5424
Montreal Impact27661534:542430
Sporting Kansas City27631832:6521
Sporting Kansas City27631832:6521Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.