Both teams to score
Yes62%
ours 1.61
No38%
ours 2.65
All matches
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Atlanta United II — Connecticut United, MLS Next Pro
USA, MLS Next Pro
Atlanta United II
2.0WLWDW
Connecticut United
2.0WLLLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
46%24%30%
Atlanta United II46%Draw24%Connecticut United30%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Atlanta United II2.16—
XDraw4.25—
2Connecticut United3.31—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAtlanta United IIConnecticut UnitedCombined
Goals scored2.832.675.50
Conceded1.672.173.84
Corners7.59.08.3
Cards2.21.33.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Atlanta United IIConnecticut United
Atlanta United FC II 46%, Connecticut United 30%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
Atlanta United FC II 46%Draw 24%Connecticut United 30%
1st half
34 · 38 · 29
2nd half
37 · 36 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Atlanta United II
- awayOrlando City II4:2
- awayChattanooga1:4
- homeConnecticut United4:1
- awayInter Miami II1:1
- homeOrlando City II5:1
Connecticut United
- homeInter Miami II7:2
- awayNew York City II0:1
- awayAtlanta United II1:4
- homeNew York Red Bulls II2:4
- awayPhiladelphia Union II4:2
Head to head
- 09/08/26MLS Next Pro4:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
Los Angeles Galaxy II28147758:3649
Los Angeles Galaxy II28147758:36496
Houston Dynamo II28146853:3348
Houston Dynamo II28146853:33487Atlanta United II28145962:4647
Atlanta United II28145962:46478
New York Red Bulls II281351058:4844
New York Red Bulls II281351058:48449Connecticut United281421259:5244
Connecticut United281421259:524410
New York City II281351050:4444
New York City II281351050:444411
New England Revolution II28128847:4244
New England Revolution II28128847:4244Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.