Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.75book 1.53
No43%
ours 2.33book 2.37
All matches
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Aston Villa — Brentford, Premier League
England, Premier League
Aston Villa
3.3WLWDLBrentford
2.4WDDDWOutcome probability
372934
Aston Villa37%Draw29%Brentford34%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Aston Villa2.712.72+0.2
XDraw3.473.62+1.2
2Brentford2.922.69-2.9
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAston VillaBrentfordCombined
Goals scored1.171.833.00
Conceded1.830.832.66
Corners8.010.59.3
Cards2.22.34.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Aston VillaBrentford
Aston Villa FC 37%, Brentford FC 34%. The safest is “No draw” at 72%.
Aston Villa FC 37%Draw 29%Brentford FC 34%
1st half
26 · 43 · 31
2nd half
32 · 35 · 33
Bookmakers: 2.72 · 3.62 · 2.69
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: No draw
72%1.34
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Aston Villa
- awayTottenham3:2
- homeNottingham Forest1:2
- awayClub Brugge3:2
- awayHull City0:0
- homeArsenal0:1
Brentford
- homeChelsea3:0
- awayBournemouth2:2
- homeSunderland1:1
- awayLeeds United1:1
- homeTottenham3:0
Head to head
- 02/01/26Premier League0:1
- 08/23/25Premier League0:1
- 03/08/25Premier League1:0
- 12/04/24Premier League3:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Arsenal54018:412
Arsenal54018:4123
Brighton531116:510
Brighton531116:5104Brentford523010:49
Brentford523010:495
Leeds United52307:39
Leeds United52307:396
Liverpool52307:49
Liverpool52307:497
Everton52306:39
Everton52306:398
Hull City52216:48
Hull City52216:489
Newcastle United52219:98
Newcastle United52219:9810
Chelsea521210:127
Chelsea521210:12711
Ipswich Town52037:116
Ipswich Town52037:11612
Manchester United51228:85
Manchester United51228:8513
Nottingham Forest51224:55
Nottingham Forest51224:5514
Sunderland51136:104
Sunderland51136:10415
Crystal Palace51136:114
Crystal Palace51136:11416Aston Villa51134:94
Aston Villa51134:9417
Bournemouth50326:83
Bournemouth50326:8318
Coventry City51041:103
Coventry City51041:103Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.