Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.77
No44%
ours 2.30
All matches
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Auxerre — Le Mans, Ligue 1
France, Ligue 1
Auxerre
1.5WWLLL
Le Mans
1.9WDDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
42%25%33%
Auxerre42%Draw25%Le Mans33%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Auxerre2.38—
XDraw3.96—
2Le Mans3.05—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAuxerreLe MansCombined
Goals scored0.831.172.00
Conceded1.171.172.34
Corners13.39.311.3
Cards1.82.34.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AuxerreLe Mans
Association Jeunesse Auxerroise 42%, Le Mans FC 33%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Association Jeunesse Auxerroise 42%Draw 25%Le Mans FC 33%
1st half
36 · 36 · 28
2nd half
32 · 41 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Auxerre
- homeBrest2:1
- homeNice1:0
- awayLyon1:3
- homeAngers1:3
- awayLens2:5
Le Mans
- homeLorient2:1
- homeLens2:2
- awayNice1:1
- awayRennes2:3
- homeBrest2:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
Angers52126:57
Angers52126:578
Strasbourg521210:107
Strasbourg521210:1079Le Mans51319:96
Le Mans51319:9610Auxerre52037:126
Auxerre52037:12611
Brest51227:85
Brest51227:8512
Lorient51225:65
Lorient51225:65Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.