All matches

Deportivo Tarma — Cajamarca, Primera División

Peru, Primera División

Deportivo Tarma
1.6WLLLL
—
Cajamarca
1.6LWLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
51%25%24%
Deportivo TarmaMarket 1.7151%DrawMarket 3.6825%CajamarcaMarket 4.5024%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Deportivo Tarma51%58%1.941.71-7.0
XDraw25%27%4.043.68-2.4
2Cajamarca24%22%4.214.50+1.5

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.70book 1.64

No41%

ours 2.44book 2.13

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDeportivo TarmaCajamarcaCombined
Goals scored0.831.832.66
Conceded2.502.675.17
Corners11.56.89.2
Cards2.02.54.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freeSign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Deportivo TarmaCajamarca

Asociación Deportiva Tarma 51%, FC Cajamarca 24%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

Asociación Deportiva Tarma 51%Draw 25%FC Cajamarca 24%
1st half
38 · 38 · 24
2nd half
39 · 37 · 24

Bookmakers: 1.71 · 3.68 · 4.50

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

Sign in

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Sign in

Form and context

Deportivo Tarma

  • homeCienciano2:1
  • awayAlianza Lima0:2
  • awayMelgar0:3
  • homeSport Huancayo1:3
  • awayJuan Pablo II1:5

Cajamarca

  • homeReal Garcilaso1:2
  • awayLos Chankas2:1
  • homeCienciano2:5
  • awayComerciantes Unidos3:2
  • homeAtletico Grau1:3

Head to head

  • 04/18/26Primera División2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
13Atletico Grau27951326:3132
14Comerciantes Unidos27791135:3830
15Cajamarca27761441:5227
16Deportivo Tarma27671429:4225
17UCV Moquegua27671424:4125
18UT Cajamarca27481532:5020

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.