Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.80
No45%
ours 2.24
All matches
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Real Garcilaso — Sport Boys, Primera División
Peru, Primera División
Real Garcilaso
2.9WLWWL
Sport Boys
1.6DWLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
60%23%17%
Real Garcilaso60%Draw23%Sport Boys17%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Real Garcilaso1.67—
XDraw4.29—
2Sport Boys5.93—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricReal GarcilasoSport BoysCombined
Goals scored0.330.500.83
Conceded0.330.500.83
Corners9.513.011.3
Cards2.03.75.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Real GarcilasoSport Boys
Asociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso 60%, Sport Boys Association 17%. The safest is “Asociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso or draw” at 79%.
Asociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso 60%Draw 23%Sport Boys Association 17%
1st half
43 · 37 · 20
2nd half
36 · 40 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 5.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Real Garcilaso
- awayCajamarca2:1
- homeMelgar0:1
- homeUCV Moquegua2:0
- awayCienciano2:1
- awayGarcilaso1:4
Sport Boys
- awayMelgar1:1
- homeGarcilaso1:0
- awaySport Huancayo1:2
- homeSporting Cristal1:0
- homeCienciano5:1
Head to head
- 05/17/26Primera División0:1
- 11/07/25Primera División3:0
- 07/06/25Primera División2:1
- 08/05/24Primera División3:1
- 02/24/24Primera División0:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Garcilaso27146739:2448
Garcilaso27146739:24484
Melgar27137745:2946
Melgar27137745:29465Real Garcilaso271431040:3845
Real Garcilaso271431040:38456
Los Chankas27126936:4542
Los Chankas27126936:45427
Cienciano271251046:4041
Cienciano271251046:40418
Alianza Atletico Sullana27117940:3540
Alianza Atletico Sullana27117940:35409
Sporting Cristal271151148:4038
Sporting Cristal271151148:403810Sport Boys27108929:2638
Sport Boys27108929:263811
Sport Huancayo271051237:4435
Sport Huancayo271051237:443512
Juan Pablo II27971142:5234
Juan Pablo II27971142:5234Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.