Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.79
No44%
ours 2.27
All matches
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Real Garcilaso — Alianza Lima, Primera División
Peru, Primera División
Real Garcilaso
2.9WLWWL
Alianza Lima
3.4WLDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
39%26%36%
Real Garcilaso39%Draw26%Alianza Lima36%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Real Garcilaso2.59—
XDraw3.86—
2Alianza Lima2.81—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricReal GarcilasoAlianza LimaCombined
Goals scored1.501.002.50
Conceded1.170.832.00
Corners10.09.29.6
Cards1.51.32.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Real GarcilasoAlianza Lima
Asociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso 39%, Club Alianza Lima 36%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Asociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso 39%Draw 26%Club Alianza Lima 36%
1st half
33 · 38 · 29
2nd half
26 · 41 · 33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Real Garcilaso
- awayCajamarca2:1
- homeMelgar0:1
- homeUCV Moquegua2:0
- awayCienciano2:1
- awayGarcilaso1:4
Alianza Lima
- homeDeportivo Tarma2:0
- homeUniversitario de Deportes1:2
- awayJuan Pablo II1:1
- homeGarcilaso0:1
- awayMelgar1:1
Head to head
- 04/19/26Primera División0:8
- 07/19/25Primera División2:0
- 02/09/25Primera División0:3
- 11/03/24Primera División2:1
- 05/24/24Primera División3:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Alianza Lima27168344:1856
Alianza Lima27168344:18562
Universitario de Deportes27147643:3149
Universitario de Deportes27147643:31493
Garcilaso27146739:2448
Garcilaso27146739:24484
Melgar27137745:2946
Melgar27137745:29465Real Garcilaso271431040:3845
Real Garcilaso271431040:38456
Los Chankas27126936:4542
Los Chankas27126936:45427
Cienciano271251046:4041
Cienciano271251046:4041Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.