Aris Thessaloniki — Atromitos, Super League

Greece, Super LeagueOctober 25 at 05:30 PM

Aris Thessaloniki

2.3DLLWW

—

Atromitos

1.6LDDLL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

53%26%21%

Aris Thessaloniki53%Draw26%Atromitos21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Aris Thessaloniki53%1.90—

XDraw26%3.80—

2Atromitos21%4.73—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.20

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAris ThessalonikiAtromitosCombined

Goals scored0.330.671.00

Conceded1.331.002.33

Corners7.36.06.6

Cards1.82.34.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Aris ThessalonikiAtromitos

Aris Thessaloniki FC 53%, PAE APS Atromitos Athens 21%. The safest is “Aris Thessaloniki FC or draw” at 79%.

Aris Thessaloniki FC 53%Draw 26%PAE APS Atromitos Athens 21%

1st half

39 · 40 · 21

2nd half

37 · 39 · 23

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context