All matches

Aris Limassol — AEK Larnaca, First Division

Cyprus, First Division

Aris Limassol
2.5DWLDL
—
AEK Larnaca
3.1WLWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
37%25%39%
Aris Limassol37%Draw25%AEK Larnaca39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Aris Limassol37%2.71—
XDraw25%4.07—
2AEK Larnaca39%2.60—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73

No42%

ours 2.37

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAris LimassolAEK LarnacaCombined
Goals scored1.172.003.17
Conceded1.671.002.67
Corners7.09.48.2
Cards3.61.85.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Aris LimassolAEK Larnaca

Aris FC Limassol 37%, AEK Larnaca 38%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

Aris FC Limassol 37%Draw 25%AEK Larnaca 38%
1st half
35 · 35 · 30
2nd half
37 · 37 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 5.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Aris Limassol

  • homeKarmiotissa0:0
  • awayDigenis Ypsonas1:0
  • homeOmonia1:4
  • homeApollon Limassol2:2
  • homeAEK Larnaca3:4

AEK Larnaca

  • awayOmonia 29 Maiou2:1
  • homePaphos0:1
  • awayNea Salamis Famagusta4:1
  • homeAPOEL3:1
  • awayBeitar Jerusalem3:2

Head to head

  • 05/22/26First Division3:4
  • 04/25/26First Division0:2
  • 01/10/26First Division1:0
  • 09/22/25First Division2:3
  • 04/27/25First Division1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1AEK Larnaca43019:49
2AEL Limassol43016:79
3Omonia42208:28
4Paphos42114:27
5Apollon Limassol41307:56
6Omonia Aradippou41304:36
7Omonia 29 Maiou41219:75
8Aris Limassol41214:65
9APOEL411210:74
10Olympiakos Nicosia40407:74

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.