Ararat-Armenia — AZ Alkmaar, UEFA Europa League

Europe, UEFA Europa LeagueOctober 22 at 04:45 PM

Ararat-Armenia

3.3LDWLW

AZ Alkmaar

3.0WLWLD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

12%19%69%

Ararat-Armenia12%Draw19%AZ Alkmaar69%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Ararat-Armenia12%8.01—

XDraw19%5.28—

2AZ Alkmaar69%1.46—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.12

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Combos — with Premium

Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.

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Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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69%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1804 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1802 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1794 matches

Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Ararat-ArmeniaAZ Alkmaar

Ararat-Armenia 12%, Alkmaar Zaanstreek 69%. The safest is “Alkmaar Zaanstreek or draw” at 88%.

Ararat-Armenia 12%Draw 19%Alkmaar Zaanstreek 69%

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total shots: Under 27.5

72%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricArarat-ArmeniaAZ AlkmaarCombined

Goals scored1.500.672.17

Conceded1.500.832.33

Corners10.211.210.7

Cards1.82.03.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with Premium

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.