Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.77book 1.66
No43%
ours 2.30book 2.12
All matches
AZ Alkmaar — Juventus, UEFA Europa League
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
27%26%47%
AZ AlkmaarMarket 3.6727%DrawMarket 3.7526%JuventusMarket 2.0347%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
Available with PremiumUnlock
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AZ Alkmaar3.703.67+0.9
XDraw3.893.75+0.1
2Juventus2.122.03-1.0
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
This market opens with Premium.
Over 9.5 corners
This market opens with Premium.
Goals and corners — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Combos — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with Premium.
72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3682 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3671 matches
Cards
This market opens with Premium.
72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3661 matches
Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AZ AlkmaarJuventus
Alkmaar Zaanstreek 27%, Juventus FC 47%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Alkmaar Zaanstreek 27%Draw 26%Juventus FC 47%
Bookmakers: 3.67 · 3.75 · 2.03
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total shots on target: Under 10.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAZ AlkmaarJuventusCombined
Goals scored1.601.202.80
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other nine metrics — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
AZ Alkmaar- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches7 goals conceded
- 2.0 goals per game at home7 matches
Juventus- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches8 goals conceded
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
AZ Alkmaar
- homeTwente0:2
- awayArarat-Armenia4:0
- awayCambuur2:2
- homeHapoel Be'er Sheva2:1
- awayFeyenoord0:2
Juventus
- awayGenoa0:2
- awayLecce2:0
- homeRennes2:2
- homeLazio0:3
- awayCelta Vigo2:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Europe, UEFA Europa League: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.