Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.84
No46%
ours 2.18
All matches
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AZ Alkmaar — Hapoel Be'er Sheva, UEFA Europa League
Europe, UEFA Europa League
AZ Alkmaar
3.0WLDWW
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
3.5WDWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
66%20%14%
AZ Alkmaar66%Draw20%Hapoel Be'er Sheva14%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AZ Alkmaar1.51—
XDraw5.04—
2Hapoel Be'er Sheva7.13—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAZ AlkmaarHapoel Be'er ShevaCombined
Goals scored1.671.002.67
Conceded1.001.002.00
Corners11.28.69.9
Cards1.02.63.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AZ AlkmaarHapoel Be'er Sheva
Alkmaar Zaanstreek 66%, Hapoel Be'er Sheva FC 14%. The safest is “Alkmaar Zaanstreek or draw” at 86%.
Alkmaar Zaanstreek 66%Draw 20%Hapoel Be'er Sheva FC 14%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
AZ Alkmaar
- homeTelstar1:0
- awaySunderland0:1
- homeWillem II1:1
- awayHeerenveen3:2
- homeGo Ahead Eagles5:2
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
- homeHapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona1:0
- homeDinamo Zagreb0:0
- awayHapoel Petah Tikva2:0
- homeMaccabi Tel Aviv1:4
- homeHapoel Haifa2:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
42
U Cluj20200:02
U Cluj20200:0243
Dynamo Kyiv40222:52
Dynamo Kyiv40222:5244Hapoel Be'er Sheva10100:01
Hapoel Be'er Sheva10100:0145
Sturm Graz10100:01
Sturm Graz10100:0146
Rennes10100:01
Rennes10100:0147
Dinamo Zagreb10100:01
Dinamo Zagreb10100:0148
Twente20113:41
Twente20113:4149
KuPS20112:31
KuPS20112:3150
Rangers20112:31
Rangers20112:3151
Lincoln Red Imps20111:21
Lincoln Red Imps20111:2152
Larne20111:21
Larne20111:2153
Gornik Zabrze20111:21
Gornik Zabrze20111:2154
Aluminij20110:11
Aluminij20110:1155
Hammarby20112:41
Hammarby20112:4156
Hearts20112:71
Hearts20112:7157
Real Sociedad10011:20
Real Sociedad10011:2058
Levski Sofia10010:10
Levski Sofia10010:1059AZ Alkmaar10010:10
AZ Alkmaar10010:1060
Celta Vigo10010:10
Celta Vigo10010:1061
Derry City20023:50
Derry City20023:50Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.