Alianza Valledupar — Inter Bogotá, Primera A

Colombia, Primera AOctober 24 at 09:05 PM

Alianza Valledupar

1.4DLWLW

Inter Bogotá

1.4DDDLL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

45%29%27%

Alianza Valledupar45%Draw29%Inter Bogotá27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Alianza Valledupar45%2.24—

XDraw29%3.50—

2Inter Bogotá27%3.74—

our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.28

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

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Confident answers

The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1969 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1965 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1955 matches

Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Alianza ValleduparInter Bogotá

Alianza Valledupar FC 45%, Internacional de Bogotá 27%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

Alianza Valledupar FC 45%Draw 29%Internacional de Bogotá 27%

1st half

35 · 43 · 22

2nd half

32 · 41 · 27

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total shots on target: Under 10.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAlianza ValleduparInter BogotáCombined

Goals scored1.601.002.60

Conceded2.201.603.80

Corners11.010.610.8

Cards3.62.05.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.