Both teams to score
Yes47%
ours 2.11
No53%
ours 1.90
All matches
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Al Shorta — Al Naft, Premier League
Iraq, Premier League
Al Shorta
3.2DWDWD
Al Naft
2.3WWWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
60%26%15%
Al Shorta60%Draw26%Al Naft15%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Al Shorta1.68—
XDraw3.91—
2Al Naft6.73—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Combos
Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.
Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Sign upConfident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1031 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1030 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1023 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Al ShortaAl Naft
Al Shorta 60%, Al Naft Sport Club 15%. The safest is “Al Shorta or draw” at 83%.
Al Shorta 60%Draw 26%Al Naft Sport Club 15%
1st half
42 · 40 · 18
2nd half
41 · 42 · 18
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 9.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAl ShortaAl NaftCombined
Goals scored0.330.831.16
Conceded0.000.170.17
Corners8.76.07.3
Cards1.70.32.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Form and context
Al Shorta
- awayAl Talaba0:0
- homeAl Kahrabaa2:0
- homeGhaz Al Shamal0:0
- awayAl Gharraf2:1
- homeErbil0:0
Al Naft
- homeDiyala2:0
- awayAl Mosul1:0
- homeKarbalaa2:1
- awayAl Karma0:3
- awayAl Minaa3:0
Head to head
- 05/01/26Premier League1:0
- 03/21/26Premier League1:1
- 06/15/25Premier League4:0
- 10/31/24Premier League2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Al Zawraa953115:618
Al Zawraa953115:6183
Erbil953113:418
Erbil953113:4184Al Naft953111:518
Al Naft953111:5185Al Shorta94419:416
Al Shorta94419:4166
Newroz943211:515
Newroz943211:5157
Duhok926114:1112
Duhok926114:1112Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.