Al Quwa Al Jawiya — Al Minaa, Premier League

Iraq, Premier LeagueOctober 30 at 12:00 AM

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

2.9WDLWL

—

Al Minaa

1.6DLDLL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

60%25%16%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya60%Draw25%Al Minaa16%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Al Quwa Al Jawiya60%1.68—

XDraw25%4.03—

2Al Minaa16%6.42—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.98

No49%

ours 2.03

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Combos

Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.

Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

This market opens with a subscription.

70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 907 matches

Corners

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 906 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

68%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 903 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Al Quwa Al JawiyaAl Minaa

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 60%, Al Minaa Basra FC 16%. The safest is “Al Quwa Al Jawiya or draw” at 76%.

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 60%Draw 25%Al Minaa Basra FC 16%

1st half

34 · 41 · 25

2nd half

41 · 42 · 17

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

72%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAl Quwa Al JawiyaAl MinaaCombined

Goals scored1.170.501.67

Conceded0.670.671.34

Corners8.89.08.9

Cards0.80.00.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Sign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.