All matches

Al Nassr — Al Kholood, Professional League

Saudi Arabia, Professional League

Al Nassr
3.7DWLWW
—
Al Kholood
1.4LWDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
76%17%
Al Nassr76%Draw17%Al Kholood7%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Al Nassr76%1.31—
XDraw17%5.98—
2Al Kholood7%14.51—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81

No45%

ours 2.24

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAl NassrAl KholoodCombined
Goals scored0.500.330.83
Conceded0.330.500.83
Corners9.510.510.0
Cards1.52.54.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Al NassrAl Kholood

Al Nassr FC 76%, Al Kholood Club 7%. The safest is “Al Nassr FC or draw” at 90%.

Al Nassr FC 76%Draw 17%Al Kholood Club 7%
1st half
53 · 33 · 14
2nd half
47 · 35 · 18
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Al Nassr

  • awayAl Khaleej1:1
  • homeAbha2:1
  • awayAl Ittihad1:2
  • homeAl Taawon2:1
  • awayAl Ittifaq3:2

Al Kholood

  • awayAl Riyadh0:2
  • homeAl Shabab2:1
  • awayAl Feiha2:2
  • homeAl Ahli Jeddah3:1
  • awayAl Draih1:1

Head to head

  • 01/30/26Professional League3:0
  • 09/14/25Professional League2:0
  • 03/14/25Professional League3:1
  • 10/25/24Professional League3:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Al Hilal760123:518
2Al Ittihad752012:617
3Al Nassr751116:716
4Al Qadisiyah751116:816
5Neom750213:615
6Al Ahli Jeddah740316:1012
7Al Kholood733112:1012
8Al Draih73227:511
9Al Ittifaq732211:1111

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.