Both teams to score
Yes41%
ours 2.47
No59%
ours 1.68
All matches
Al Naft — Newroz, Premier League
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
34%38%28%
Al Naft34%Draw38%Newroz28%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Al Naft2.98—
XDraw2.63—
2Newroz3.52—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3725 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3714 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3703 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Al NaftNewroz
Al Naft Sport Club 34%, Newroz SC 28%. The safest is “Al Naft Sport Club or draw” at 72%.
Al Naft Sport Club 34%Draw 38%Newroz SC 28%
1st half
25 · 53 · 23
2nd half
29 · 46 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Home or draw
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAl NaftNewrozCombined
Goals scored1.201.002.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Al Naft- 5 clean sheets in the last 51:0, 0:0, 2:0, 2:0, 1:0
- Unbeaten at home in 8 matches1:0, 2:0, 2:0, 2:1, 1:1
- Best defence in the league — 5 conceded in 12 matches2nd place, 25 points
Newroz- 5 clean sheets in the last 50:0, 2:0, 1:0, 0:0, 2:0
- Unbeaten in 8 matches0:0, 2:0, 1:0, 0:0, 2:0
- Best defence in the league — 5 conceded in 11 matches5th place, 19 points
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Al Naft
- homeAl Kahrabaa1:0
- awayAl Gharraf0:0
- homeZakho2:0
- homeDiyala2:0
- awayAl Mosul1:0
Newroz
- homeDiyala0:0
- homeAl Minaa2:0
- awayZakho1:0
- awayGhaz Al Shamal0:0
- awayAl Jolan2:0
Head to head
- 06/01/26Premier League2:1
- 01/05/26Premier League0:2
- 05/12/25Premier League1:0
- 01/20/25Premier League1:1
More matches in this competition
Iraq, Premier League: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.