All matches

Al Fateh — Al Shabab, Professional League

Saudi Arabia, Professional League

Al Fateh
1.3LLDDD
—
Al Shabab
1.7DLLDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
38%25%37%
Al Fateh38%Draw25%Al Shabab37%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Al Fateh38%2.62—
XDraw25%4.01—
2Al Shabab37%2.71—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.63

No39%

ours 2.59

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAl FatehAl ShababCombined
Goals scored0.500.170.67
Conceded1.000.671.67
Corners13.012.312.7
Cards2.02.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Al FatehAl Shabab

Al Fateh SC 38%, Al Shabab FC Riyadh 37%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

Al Fateh SC 38%Draw 25%Al Shabab FC Riyadh 37%
1st half
36 · 37 · 27
2nd half
28 · 37 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Al Fateh

  • awayNeom2:4
  • homeAl Draih1:2
  • awayAl Taawon0:0
  • homeAl Ittihad0:0
  • awayAl Faisaly1:1

Al Shabab

  • homeAl Feiha0:0
  • awayAl Kholood1:2
  • homeAl Hilal0:2
  • awayAl Hazm1:1
  • homeAl Riyadh3:3

Head to head

  • 04/28/26Professional League1:1
  • 01/03/26Professional League2:0
  • 05/01/25Professional League3:1
  • 12/05/24Professional League2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12Al Feiha71337:116
13Al Khaleej70523:105
14Al Shabab70436:114
15Al Fateh70344:113
16Al Faisaly70345:133
17Al Taawon70343:123

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.