All matches

Al Fateh — Al Riyadh, Professional League

Saudi Arabia, Professional League

Al Fateh
1.3LLDDD
—
Al Riyadh
1.2WDLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
48%25%27%
Al Fateh48%Draw25%Al Riyadh27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Al Fateh48%2.09—
XDraw25%3.97—
2Al Riyadh27%3.71—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.69

No41%

ours 2.44

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAl FatehAl RiyadhCombined
Goals scored0.330.330.66
Conceded0.670.000.67
Corners14.011.012.5
Cards1.02.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Al FatehAl Riyadh

Al Fateh SC 48%, Al Riyadh SC 27%. The safest is “Al Fateh SC or draw” at 75%.

Al Fateh SC 48%Draw 25%Al Riyadh SC 27%
1st half
41 · 39 · 20
2nd half
35 · 37 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Al Fateh

  • awayNeom2:4
  • homeAl Draih1:2
  • awayAl Taawon0:0
  • homeAl Ittihad0:0
  • awayAl Faisaly1:1

Al Riyadh

  • homeAl Kholood2:0
  • awayAl Khaleej0:0
  • awayAl Ahli Jeddah0:5
  • homeNeom1:0
  • awayAl Shabab3:3

Head to head

  • 05/10/26Professional League0:1
  • 01/13/26Professional League3:1
  • 04/23/25Professional League2:2
  • 11/28/24Professional League1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9Al Ittifaq732211:1111
10Al Hazm72237:98
11Al Riyadh72238:168
12Al Feiha71337:116
13Al Khaleej70523:105
14Al Shabab70436:114
15Al Fateh70344:113
16Al Faisaly70345:133
17Al Taawon70343:123

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.