Al Ahly — El Qanah, Premier League

Egypt, Premier LeagueOctober 21 at 05:00 PM

Al Ahly

3.3WWDWW

El Qanah

1.9DLDDD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

74%19%

Al AhlyMarket 1.1974%DrawMarket 5.4019%El QanahMarket 12.707%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Al Ahly74%84%1.351.19-9.9

XDraw19%19%5.295.40+0.4

2El Qanah7%8%14.5812.70-1.0

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.97book 2.30

No49%

ours 2.03book 1.54

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1747 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1745 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1736 matches

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Al AhlyEl Qanah

Al Ahly SC 74%, Olympic El Qanah 7%. The safest is “Al Ahly SC or draw” at 92%.

Al Ahly SC 74%Draw 19%Olympic El Qanah 7%

1st half

52 · 39 · 9

2nd half

56 · 33 · 11

Bookmakers: 1.19 · 5.40 · 12.70

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total shots on target: Over 6.5

72%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAl AhlyEl QanahCombined

Goals scored1.831.002.83

Conceded0.501.001.50

Corners9.58.38.9

Cards1.21.22.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.