Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.65
No40%
ours 2.53
All matches
—
Airbus UK — Caernarfon Town, Welsh Premier League
Wales, Welsh Premier League
Airbus UK
1.9WLWLL
Caernarfon Town
2.2LDWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
28%23%49%
Airbus UK28%Draw23%Caernarfon Town49%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Airbus UK3.54—
XDraw4.34—
2Caernarfon Town2.05—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAirbus UKCaernarfon TownCombined
Goals scored1.332.003.33
Conceded1.000.831.83
Corners6.811.89.3
Cards0.82.02.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Airbus UKCaernarfon Town
Airbus UK FC 28%, Caernarfon Town FC 49%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.
Airbus UK FC 28%Draw 23%Caernarfon Town FC 49%
1st half
35 · 35 · 29
2nd half
23 · 35 · 42
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Airbus UK
- homeTrefelin3:0
- awayPenybont1:2
- homeFlint Town United4:1
- awayConnah's Quay0:3
- homeTNS0:2
Caernarfon Town
- homeBarry Town United0:1
- awayCardiff Metropolitan University2:2
- homeCambrian & Clydach Vale9:1
- awayLlandudno1:1
- awayAmmanford5:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Penybont1283122:1027
Penybont1283122:10274
Barry Town United1281327:2025
Barry Town United1281327:20255Caernarfon Town1272335:1423
Caernarfon Town1272335:14236
Colwyn Bay1271421:1522
Colwyn Bay1271421:15227
Cardiff Metropolitan University1263323:1321
Cardiff Metropolitan University1263323:13218Airbus UK1260621:1718
Airbus UK1260621:17189
Cambrian & Clydach Vale1253421:3218
Cambrian & Clydach Vale1253421:321810
Llandudno1251621:1916
Llandudno1251621:1916Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.