Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.76
No43%
ours 2.32
All matches
—
Ceuta — Sporting Gijon, Segunda División
Spain, Segunda División
Ceuta
1.7DWDLL
Sporting Gijon
1.9WLWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
41%26%33%
Ceuta41%Draw26%Sporting Gijon33%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Ceuta2.44—
XDraw3.89—
2Sporting Gijon3.01—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCeutaSporting GijonCombined
Goals scored0.831.001.83
Conceded0.500.831.33
Corners9.011.010.0
Cards2.74.77.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
CeutaSporting Gijon
Agrupación Deportiva Ceuta FC 41%, Real Sporting de Gijón 33%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Agrupación Deportiva Ceuta FC 41%Draw 26%Real Sporting de Gijón 33%
1st half
36 · 39 · 25
2nd half
31 · 40 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Over 0.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Ceuta
- awayCastellon1:1
- homeReal Sociedad II3:1
- homeReal Valladolid1:1
- awayBurgos1:3
- homeCelta Vigo II0:2
Sporting Gijon
- homeCelta Vigo II3:2
- awayReal Oviedo0:2
- awayAndorra3:1
- homeEldense0:1
- homeGirona0:2
Head to head
- 05/03/26Segunda División2:1
- 08/23/25Segunda División0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6
Burgos842212:914
Burgos842212:9147
Sabadell83418:613
Sabadell83418:6138Sporting Gijon84138:813
Sporting Gijon84138:8139
Granada832313:1311
Granada832313:131110
Real Oviedo83238:811
Real Oviedo83238:81111
Las Palmas832312:1311
Las Palmas832312:131112
Tenerife832310:1211
Tenerife832310:121113
Leganes83236:1111
Leganes83236:111114
Real Valladolid82338:119
Real Valladolid82338:11915
Cordoba830513:189
Cordoba830513:18916
Real Sociedad II822411:138
Real Sociedad II822411:13817
Eldense82248:108
Eldense82248:10818
Celta Vigo II822410:148
Celta Vigo II822410:14819
Cadiz814311:107
Cadiz814311:10720
Andorra821512:157
Andorra821512:15721Ceuta81257:185
Ceuta81257:18522
Albacete80175:151
Albacete80175:151Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.