Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.84
No46%
ours 2.19
All matches
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AFC Fylde — Hornchurch, National League
England, National League
AFC Fylde
LLWLW
Hornchurch
LWLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
46%25%29%
AFC Fylde46%Draw25%Hornchurch29%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AFC Fylde2.19—
XDraw4.00—
2Hornchurch3.41—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAFC FyldeHornchurchCombined
Goals scored0.330.330.66
Conceded0.831.172.00
Corners14.311.312.8
Cards1.30.72.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AFC FyldeHornchurch
AFC Fylde 46%, AFC Hornchurch 29%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
AFC Fylde 46%Draw 25%AFC Hornchurch 29%
1st half
41 · 41 · 18
2nd half
31 · 36 · 33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 8.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
AFC Fylde
- awaySouthend United1:3
- homeCarlisle United0:2
- awayBoston United1:0
- homeAltrincham1:2
- awayHarrogate Town2:1
Hornchurch
- awayHarrogate Town0:3
- homeAldershot Town2:1
- awayAltrincham0:3
- homeScunthorpe United1:0
- awayWorthing0:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
Worthing1263322:1821
Worthing1263322:18216
Altrincham1270517:1821
Altrincham1270517:18217AFC Fylde1262422:1820
AFC Fylde1262422:18208
Kidderminster Harriers1254315:1219
Kidderminster Harriers1254315:12199
Barrow1253420:1518
Barrow1253420:151810
Aldershot Town1253417:1318
Aldershot Town1253417:131811
Sutton United1253414:1618
Sutton United1253414:161812Hornchurch1260613:1918
Hornchurch1260613:191813
Halifax Town1252518:1417
Halifax Town1252518:141714
Carlisle United1244423:2016
Carlisle United1244423:2016Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.