All matches

Bournemouth — AC Milan, UEFA Europa League

Europe, UEFA Europa League

Bournemouth
2.5LWDDD
—
AC Milan
2.8WLDDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
52%25%23%
Bournemouth52%Draw25%AC Milan23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Bournemouth52%1.92—
XDraw25%4.03—
2AC Milan23%4.34—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.82

No45%

ours 2.23

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBournemouthAC MilanCombined
Goals scored0.670.831.50
Conceded0.670.671.34
Corners7.37.77.5
Cards3.01.34.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

BournemouthAC Milan

AFC Bournemouth 52%, AC Milan 23%. The safest is “AFC Bournemouth or draw” at 77%.

AFC Bournemouth 52%Draw 25%AC Milan 23%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Bournemouth

  • homeLiverpool0:1
  • awayReal Sociedad2:1
  • homeBrentford2:2
  • awayNewcastle United2:2
  • homeEverton1:1

AC Milan

  • homeLecce3:0
  • homeBenfica0:2
  • awayLazio2:2
  • awayJuventus1:1
  • homeVenezia2:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
27Union Saint-Gilloise11003:03
28Bayer Leverkusen11002:03
29Bournemouth11002:13
30Lyon11002:13
31Olympiakos11002:13
32Torreense11002:13
33Sunderland11001:03
34Red Star Belgrade21014:53
35Sint-Truiden21013:43
36Zilina21012:33
37Viktoria Plzen31025:73
38Shamrock Rovers21014:63
39Vikingur Reykjavik21013:53
40Kauno Zalgiris21011:33
41St. Gallen21012:63
42U Cluj20200:02
43Dynamo Kyiv40222:52
44Hapoel Be'er Sheva10100:01
45Sturm Graz10100:01
46Rennes10100:01
47Dinamo Zagreb10100:01
48Twente20113:41
49KuPS20112:31
50Rangers20112:31
51Lincoln Red Imps20111:21
52Larne20111:21
53Gornik Zabrze20111:21
54Aluminij20110:11
55Hammarby20112:41
56Hearts20112:71
57Real Sociedad10011:20
58Levski Sofia10010:10
59AZ Alkmaar10010:10
60Celta Vigo10010:10
61Derry City20023:50
62Celtic10011:30
63Celje10010:20
64Hoffenheim10010:20
65AC Milan10010:20
66Marseille10011:40
67Tromso20021:40

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.