Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.65
No39%
ours 2.54
All matches
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Ajax — AZ Alkmaar, Eredivisie
Netherlands, Eredivisie
Ajax
3.3DWWLW
AZ Alkmaar
3.0WLDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
48%26%27%
Ajax48%Draw26%AZ Alkmaar27%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Ajax2.10—
XDraw3.87—
2AZ Alkmaar3.76—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAjaxAZ AlkmaarCombined
Goals scored0.330.170.50
Conceded0.330.000.33
Corners9.07.08.0
Cards1.01.02.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AjaxAZ Alkmaar
AFC Ajax 48%, Alkmaar Zaanstreek 27%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
AFC Ajax 48%Draw 26%Alkmaar Zaanstreek 27%
1st half
42 · 36 · 22
2nd half
32 · 37 · 31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Home or draw
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Ajax
- homeExcelsior2:2
- homeWillem II5:1
- awayFortuna Sittard5:1
- homePSV1:3
- awayTelstar4:0
AZ Alkmaar
- homeTelstar1:0
- awaySunderland0:1
- homeWillem II1:1
- awayHeerenveen3:2
- homeGo Ahead Eagles5:2
Head to head
- 02/08/26Eredivisie1:1
- 10/18/25Eredivisie0:2
- 03/16/25Eredivisie2:2
- 12/08/24Eredivisie1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1AZ Alkmaar761018:619
AZ Alkmaar761018:6192
Feyenoord752025:717
Feyenoord752025:7173
PSV751124:1016
PSV751124:10164
Twente751115:716
Twente751115:7165Ajax742121:914
Ajax742121:9146
Fortuna Sittard741213:1413
Fortuna Sittard741213:14137
Excelsior732215:911
Excelsior732215:911Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.