Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.65
No39%
ours 2.53
All matches
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Ajax II — Vitesse, Eerste Divisie
Netherlands, Eerste Divisie
Ajax II
0.8DLLWD
Vitesse
1.9DLWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
35%23%42%
Ajax II35%Draw23%Vitesse42%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Ajax II2.87—
XDraw4.37—
2Vitesse2.37—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAjax IIVitesseCombined
Goals scored0.170.831.00
Conceded1.330.832.16
Corners11.310.310.8
Cards2.32.75.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Ajax IIVitesse
AFC Ajax II 35%, SBV Vitesse 42%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
AFC Ajax II 35%Draw 23%SBV Vitesse 42%
1st half
34 · 36 · 29
2nd half
32 · 35 · 33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 12.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Ajax II
- homeRoda JC0:0
- awayUtrecht II1:6
- homeRKC Waalwijk0:2
- awayAlmere City1:0
- awayPSV II1:1
Vitesse
- homeNAC Breda2:2
- awayHeracles0:2
- homePSV II3:1
- awayRoda JC0:1
- homeOss2:1
Head to head
- 04/06/26Eerste Divisie1:6
- 12/01/25Eerste Divisie2:0
- 04/14/25Eerste Divisie1:1
- 09/21/24Eerste Divisie2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6
Roda JC94329:715
Roda JC94329:7157
RKC Waalwijk935119:1214
RKC Waalwijk935119:12148Vitesse942315:1314
Vitesse942315:13149
NAC Breda942319:1914
NAC Breda942319:191410
AZ II941422:1713
AZ II941422:171311
Volendam940520:1712
Volendam940520:171212
PSV II933314:1612
PSV II933314:161213
Eindhoven932415:1911
Eindhoven932415:191114
Helmond Sport923415:169
Helmond Sport923415:16915
Oss930612:149
Oss930612:14916
Den Bosch922513:188
Den Bosch922513:18817Ajax II922513:228
Ajax II922513:22818
Dordrecht922513:248
Dordrecht922513:24819
De Graafschap922511:228
De Graafschap922511:228Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.