Sporting San Miguelito — Tauro, LPF

Panama, LPFOctober 13 at 01:30 AM

Sporting San Miguelito

1.7WDLLD

—

Tauro

1.6LLWWW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

39%29%32%

Sporting San Miguelito39%Draw29%Tauro32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Sporting San Miguelito39%2.58—

XDraw29%3.40—

2Tauro32%3.15—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.85

No46%

ours 2.17

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSporting San MiguelitoTauroCombined

Goals scored1.672.173.84

Conceded1.831.002.83

Corners9.211.710.4

Cards1.22.43.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Sporting San MiguelitoTauro

AF Sporting San Miguelito 39%, Tauro FC 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 72%.

AF Sporting San Miguelito 39%Draw 29%Tauro FC 32%

1st half

35 · 40 · 24

2nd half

26 · 40 · 34

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

72%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context