All matches

AEK Athens — Real Madrid, UEFA Champions League

Europe, UEFA Champions League

AEK Athens
3.6WDWWD
—
Real Madrid
4.0LWWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
19%23%58%
AEK Athens19%Draw23%Real Madrid58%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AEK Athens19%5.14—
XDraw23%4.36—
2Real Madrid58%1.74—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.79

No44%

ours 2.26

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAEK AthensReal MadridCombined
Goals scored0.000.000.00
Conceded0.000.000.00
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

AEK AthensReal Madrid

AEK Athens FC 19%, Real Madrid CF 58%. The safest is “Real Madrid CF or draw” at 81%.

AEK Athens FC 19%Draw 23%Real Madrid CF 58%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

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Form and context

AEK Athens

  • awayVolos New2:1
  • awayAsteras Tripolis1:1
  • homeLASK1:0
  • homeAris Thessaloniki5:0
  • awayKifisias1:1

Real Madrid

  • awayAtletico Madrid1:2
  • awayElche3:2
  • homeRayo Vallecano4:1
  • homeInter Milan2:1
  • awayReal Betis0:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9Kairat63035:49
10Kauno Zalgiris62226:108
11AEK Athens32105:07
12Universitatea Craiova42117:47
13KI Klaksvik42114:37
14Vikingur Reykjavik42115:57
15Red Star Belgrade42029:36
16Egnatia413012:76
17Sturm Graz42026:36
18Shamrock Rovers42027:66
19Celje613210:106
20AGF Aarhus42027:106
21Larne42023:106
22Iberia 199941216:75
23Lincoln Red Imps41214:55
24Lyon41126:54
25Viking31116:64
26Mjallby41124:44
27NEC Nijmegen41123:74
28PSG11006:13
29Bayern Munich11005:03
30Barcelona11005:13
31Manchester United11004:03
32Como11004:13
33Stuttgart11003:13
34Sporting CP11003:13
35Manchester City11002:03
36Real Betis11003:23
37Lens11003:23
38Aston Villa11003:23
39Borussia Dortmund11003:23
40Liverpool11002:13
41Real Madrid11002:13
42Arsenal11001:03
43LASK31025:53

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.